Executive Summary

Q1 2025 was operationally strong but mixed financially: revenue rose to $15.42B while EPS fell to $0.64; Company Adjusted EBITDA was $2.44B, with $2.01B DCF and 1.7x coverage, retaining $842M for reinvestment .
Versus S&P Global consensus, EPD delivered a revenue beat but an EPS and EBITDA miss: Revenue $15.42B vs $14.00B*, EPS $0.66 actual vs $0.70*, SPGI EBITDA $2.31B vs $2.55B*, driven by PDH downtime and weaker petrochemical spreads offset by record natural gas processing and pipeline volumes .
Guidance unchanged: 2025 growth capex $4.0–$4.5B, 2026 $2.0–$2.5B; sustaining capex 2025 ~ $525M; leverage target ~3.0x ±0.25x; distribution declared $0.535/unit (annualized $2.14) .
2025 catalysts: ~$6B of projects scheduled to enter service (two Permian processing plants, Frac 14, Neches River exports phase 1, Bahia NGL pipeline, Morgan’s Point enhancements), with logistics assets largely contracted (LPG 85–90%)—key de-risking and cash-flow ramp potential .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Record system throughputs: record 7.7 Bcf/d inlet gas processing and 20.3 TBtus/d gas pipeline volumes; NGL pipelines/storage GOM up, natural gas pipelines GOM up, supporting resilient fee-based earnings .
- Cash return capacity intact: DCF $2.01B, 1.7x coverage; $842M DCF retained; buybacks of ~$60M this quarter and payout ratio (LTM) of 56% of Adjusted CFFO .
- Commercial de-risking: exports well contracted; LPG export expansion positioned as highly capital-efficient with competitive fees; management confident growth projects will be “fairly full” at start-up .
- Quote: “We reported record inlet natural gas processing volumes of 7.7 [Bcf/d] and record natural gas pipeline volumes of 20.3 [TBtus/d]” .
What Went Wrong
- Petrochemicals softness: Petrochemical & Refined Products GOM fell to $315M (from $444M) on lower octane margins/deficiency revenues and narrower RGP-to-PGP spreads; PDH 1 down ~63 days in Q1 .
- Crude segment softness: Crude Oil Pipelines & Services GOM declined to $374M (from $411M) with lower sales volumes/margins; crude marine terminal volumes fell YoY .
- MTM hedging losses: $42M MTM losses weighed on reported operating income and gross operating margin (vs $4M loss in Q1 2024) .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Cash Metrics

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenues ($B)	$13.78	$14.20	$15.42
EPS (Fully diluted, $/unit)	$0.65	$0.74	$0.64
Operating Income ($B)	$1.78	$1.97	$1.76
Total Gross Operating Margin ($B, non-GAAP)	$2.454	$2.628	$2.431
Adjusted EBITDA (Company, $B)	$2.442	$2.599	$2.444
DCF (non-GAAP, $B)	$1.957	$2.155	$2.013
Adjusted CFFO (non-GAAP, $B)	$2.108	$2.301	$2.111

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus – Q1 2025

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Surprise
Revenue ($B)	$15.42	$14.00*	+$1.42B (Beat)
EPS ($)	$0.66 (rounded; $0.658)	$0.70*	-$0.04 (Miss)
EBITDA ($B, SPGI basis)	$2.313	$2.548*	-$0.235B (Miss)

Note: Company Adjusted EBITDA = $2.444B; SPGI EBITDA actual = $2.313B; definitional differences explain the variance . Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Gross Operating Margin (GOM)

Segment ($MM)	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
NGL Pipelines & Services	1,340	1,548	1,418
Crude Oil Pipelines & Services	411	417	374
Natural Gas Pipelines & Services	312	323	357
Petrochemical & Refined Products Services	444	348	315
Total Segment GOM	2,507	2,636	2,464
Non-GAAP Total GOM	2,490	2,628	2,431

KPIs and Throughput

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Equivalent pipeline volumes (MMBbl/d)	12.76	13.55	13.23
NGL pipeline volumes (MBbl/d)	4,223	4,768	4,447
NGL marine terminal volumes (MBbl/d)	887	1,005	994
NGL fractionation volumes (MBbl/d)	1,611	1,637	1,652
Natural gas pipeline volumes (BBtus/d)	19,090	19,925	20,310
Natural gas processing inlet (MMcf/d)	7,526	7,579	7,719
Fee-based gas processing (MMcf/d)	6,804	6,994	7,181
Propylene production (MBbl/d)	113	106	113

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Organic growth capex	2025	$4.0–$4.5B (Q4’24)	$4.0–$4.5B	Maintained
Organic growth capex	2026	$2.0–$2.5B (Q4’24)	$2.0–$2.5B	Maintained
Sustaining capex	2025	~$525M (Q4’24)	~$525M	Maintained
Distribution per unit	Q1 2025	$0.525 (Q4’24 declared run-rate)	$0.535 ($2.14 annualized)	Raised vs PY
Leverage target	Ongoing	3.0x ±0.25x (prior)	3.0x ±0.25x	Maintained
2025 project timing	2025	As outlined Q4’24	~$6B slated: 2 Permian gas plants (Q3), Frac 14 (Q3), Neches River NGL export phase 1 (Q3), Bahia NGL pipeline (Q4), Morgan’s Point enhancements (Q4)	Affirmed schedule

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2: Q3’24, Q-1: Q4’24)	Current Period (Q1’25)	Trend
PDH uptime and petrochem margins	Heavy turnarounds in 2024; efforts to improve PDH reliability; petrochem GOM pressured	PDH 1 down ~63 days in Q1; both PDH now online; ~75% of octane spread hedged; PGP spreads weaker; splitters moved toward fee-based	Improving plant availability; lower spread risk; petrochem margins subdued
Permian-driven growth	Record processing and pipeline volumes; Piñon acquisition to enhance Delaware G&P	Record gas processing/pipeline volumes; two new Permian plants expected Q3; backlog of well connects	Continued system growth and visibility
Exports/LPG and tariffs	NGL export growth, debottlenecking; LPG spot capture	Minimal export disruption; cargos rerouting; LPG 85–90% contracted; capital-efficient terminal expansions	Stable demand pull; contract coverage high
Data center/gas demand	Early-stage commentary on growing TX gas demand from data centers	Positive tone on long-term gas demand; not in near-term guidance	Emerging structural tailwind
Capex cadence/2026 outlook	Elevated 2024–25; normalization to ~$2–2.5B by 2026	Reiterated: 2025 $4.0–$4.5B; 2026 ~$2.0–$2.5B; majority of 2025 projects online by YE	Visibility to capex decline
CO2 pipeline (1PointFive/Oxy)	Announced framework and timing into 2025	No major update this quarter	Watch for FID in 2025

Management Commentary

“If both PDH plants have been up and running during the first quarter, we would have easily exceeded $2.5 billion [Adjusted EBITDA]” .
“We have $6 billion of major organic growth projects scheduled to be completed and begin generating cash flow in 2025…” (Frac 14, Neches River exports, Bahia, Morgan’s Point enhancements) .
On exports/tariffs: “We have not seen a disruption on any of our exports on ethane or LPG… our counterparties are typically international companies who know how to navigate international volatility.” .
Capital returns and balance sheet: “Payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 56% [LTM]… leverage 3.1x net… 96% fixed-rate debt” .

Q&A Highlights

Exports/tariffs: Limited direct exposure to China; trade flows rerouting; terminal expansions highly capital-efficient (e.g., ~$400M capex for ~300 Mbpd) supporting competitive fees .
2025 project ramp/contracting: New plants to fill quickly (Midland “close to full,” Delaware 60–75%); exports ~85–90% contracted; multiple supply projects underpin volumes .
Petrochem outlook: Both PDH units running; splitters moved from margin-based to fee-based lowering volatility; ~75% of octane spread hedged; expect seasonal improvement in 2H spreads .
Capital allocation: 2026 excess DCF could reach ~$3.6B with growth capex $2.0–$2.5B, leaving ~$1.5B for buybacks/debt paydown (scenario framing) .
Crude segment run-rate: Q1 softness tied to lower sales volumes/margins; April trends improving; Midland pipes “full,” expect return to crude service later this year .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 vs consensus: Revenue beat (+$1.42B), EPS miss (-$0.04), SPGI EBITDA miss (-$0.235B), with headwinds from petrochem margins and PDH downtime partially offset by record gas volumes .
Recent trend: Q4 2024 EPS beat ($0.74 vs $0.71*), revenue in line/slight beat; Q3 2024 EPS beat, revenue slight miss, EBITDA below consensus—highlighting sensitivity of non-fee segments .

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Consensus Detail (S&P Global)

Q1 2025: EPS $0.7017*, Revenue $14.00B*, EBITDA $2.548B*, Actuals: EPS $0.658, Revenue $15.417B, SPGI EBITDA $2.313B .
Q4 2024: EPS $0.7056*, Revenue $14.13B*, EBITDA $2.539B*, Actuals: EPS $0.742, Revenue $14.201B, SPGI EBITDA $2.492B .
Q3 2024: EPS $0.6518*, Revenue $13.872B*, EBITDA $2.445B*, Actuals: EPS $0.659, Revenue $13.775B, SPGI EBITDA $2.326B .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Fee-based backbone is working: record gas processing/pipeline volumes and higher NGL pipeline/storage GOM offset petrochemical softness—supporting resilient cash coverage and retained DCF .
Near-term EPS/EBITDA sensitivity remains tied to petrochem spreads and PDH uptime; both PDH units are now running, fee-shift on splitters reduces volatility, and hedges cover ~75% of octane spreads .
2025 is an execution year: ~$6B of projects coming online with high contract coverage should expand mid-to-late-2025 cash flows, setting up 2026 capex normalization and higher excess DCF capacity .
Export optionality remains a strategic moat; tariff developments are being managed via rerouting, with minimal disruption to nominations; brownfield expansions appear cost-advantaged .
Balance sheet flexibility intact (3.1x net leverage; 96% fixed-rate debt); management reiterates 3.0x ±0.25x target, enabling continued distributions and opportunistic buybacks .
Watch items: petrochem demand/spreads, PDH reliability, LPG export pricing, ramp cadence of 2025 projects, and Permian activity/well connections (especially 2H weighted) .
Trading setup: Any evidence of smoother PDH operations and on-time project start-ups could drive estimate revisions higher; conversely, persistent petrochem softness could cap multiple expansion relative to fee-heavy peers .

Footnote: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Sources: Q1 2025 8-K and press materials ; Q1 2025 earnings call transcript ; Q4 2024 press release ; Q3 2024 press release & call .

ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P. (EPD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary